Two sets of predictions

The future is here. It's just not widely distributed yet. -William Gibson

Two sets of predictions about the trends that will impact schools and libraries in the immediate future came to my attention this week.

The first is one my favorite publications, The Horizon Report, published annually by EDUCAUSE. The second is a Tame the Web blog post by respected librarian Michael Stephens, "Ten Trends and Technologies for 2009." I read through both this weekend and was struck by how the reports echo each other. (Great minds think alike.) And to a large degree, the impact some of these technologies are having on many of us already. That "wackiness" factor of some prognosticators is simply missing from both these publications.

I've listed the "big ideas" along with a teaser quote for both reports. But you'll really want to read them both in their entireties. And while the Stephens is writing for public/academic libraries. most of what he says is also relevant to schools and school libraries.

Horizon Report, 2009:

1. Mobiles "The idea of a single portable device that can make phone calls, take pictures, record audio and video, store data, music, and movies, and interact with the Internet — all of it — has become so interwoven into our lifestyles that it is now surprising to learn that someone does not carry one."
2. Cloud Computing "cloud computing transforms once-expensive resources like disk storage and processing cycles into a readily available, cheap commodity."
3. Geo-Everything "Geolocation technology is not new, but it is now commonly available in a growing range of devices like mobile phones, cameras, and other handhelds; at the same time, the software tools we use every day are beginning to include features that make use of geolocative data. ... tweets, indicate nearby friends ... a photo application for the iPhone, lets the viewer upload geotagged photos..."
4. The Personal Web "...people of all ages are creating customized, personal web-based environments to support their social, professional, and learning activities using whatever tools they prefer."
5. Semantic Aware Applications "Semantic-aware applications are tools designed to use the meaning, or semantics, of information on the Internet to make connections and provide answers that would otherwise entail a great deal of time and effort."
6. Smart Objects "Smart objects are the link between the virtual world and the real. A smart object “knows” about itself — where and how it was made, what it is for, who owns it and how they use it, what other objects in the world are like it — and about its environment."

Stephens:

1. Ubiquity of the Cloud "...could all of my data someday be stored in the cloud, be it at Apple’s, Amazon’s or some new service? Could I easily access my data from any PC, Mac, phone, tablet, etc at my disposal?"
2. The Changing Role of IT "People skills, negotiation skills and enabling effective communication across all levels of an institution will be very important for these new IT/Librarian professionals. The days of hunching over code in a basement office may be fading."
3. The Value of the Commons "Collaborative spaces offering access to technology - such as circulating hard drives, digital video cameras, and laptops - may soon be the norm on many college campuses, especially those with forward-thinking librarians. ... The Commons to me is much more than a physical space. It’s a community - a gathering place - a place to share."
4. The Promises of Micro-Interaction "Library staff could use micro-interaction tools to get things done as well. Easy communication, projects updates and, of course, the excellent examples of libraries using Twitter in time and money saving ways."
5. The Care and Nurturing of the Tribe "We have come a million miles from the 'using shiny technology of the day' type posts of a while ago to thinking about what it actually means to interact with another human being. These interactions just happen to be electronic."
6. Triumph of the Portable Device "Banning cell phones (and the converged devices they’ve become) is no longer an option for libraries. That sign on your door with a cell phone and a red circle/line through it simply has got to go. Go take it down. I’ll wait. ... We should be guiding user behavior in our spaces with simply stated codes of conduct instead of focusing on banning technology to control behavior.
7. The Importance of Personalization "People are personalizing their information experiences and spaces. How many years has Amazon welcomed me back with open arms, and a few suggestions for purchase? ... Affording personalized connections into the cloud might make the library a gateway to user’s data and put library resources in their view. Blocking access — Facebook? MySpace? — negates this benefit and dampens this possibility."
8. The Impact of Localization (device geo-awareness) "It’s messy, weird, kind of silly, but speaks to the promise of what could come. I might easily find three vegetarian restaurants within a mile of a conference hotel via localized search on my device. I might tap into the wisdom of three other hikers while exploring a national park via services like “Find Twitter users near me.” This is where the privacy discussion becomes so important. We need to understand how much is too much and how much is too little (”No photos in the library! It’s a privacy thing!”).
9. Evolution of the Digital Lifestyle "Music, movies, books, articles, podcasts, TV shows, etc are all available via various mechanisms online. Have you watched a dhow on Hulu? Have you streamed a Netflix movie to your laptop while waiting for the mail to bring a Netflix DVD? Have you purchased a digital download of a hot new album or song? Have you shared a video with your friends and family? Have you recorded your own song or story and shared it with the world? Maybe you have. I know for sure your library users (or non-users) have certainly done these things.
10. A Shift Toward Open Thinking "The idea of open thinking is looking past the ways we’ve always done things - the ways we’ve always spent our money - for emerging, lower-cost, sometimes free and very sustainable mechanisms. Open Source Software is a huge part of this but so is the simple idea of open governance and participation.

None of these "predictions" is particularly startling. In fact, I find myself - both personally and professionally - already being impacted by many of the technologies and social trends listed.

In the next Blue Skunk post, I'll list a few of those ways, despite being a reactionary geezer. (No comment, Miguel.)

Are you being impacted by the future, now?

Comments

[Caitlin]

I think the concept of #6 in Stephen's list is an excellent concept for schools to follow:

We should be guiding user behavior in our spaces with simply stated codes of conduct instead of focusing on banning technology to control behavior.

If students are ever going to learn proper tech etiquette, schools should stop blocking websites like Facebook or choosing not to implement/allow certain technology just because a student could do something bad with it. The students can (and do) poke their classmates with there pencil, but we teach them that this is inappropriate behavior; we don't take the pencil away.

[Paul C.]

Interesting lists. I think I am personally beginning to see "what it actually means to interact with another human being. These interactions just happen to be electronic." Social interaction through blogging has evolved quite a bit over the last year. People are empowered to express their ideas and find people who connect with them. This is a radical step of transformation from the ubiquitous one way television mega screen sound, entertainment system.

[Doug Johnson]

Hi Caitlan,

I liked that statement as well.

Oh, you might enjoy this old column: A Proposal for Banning Pencils.

http://www.educationworld.com/a_tech/columnists/johnson/johnson004.shtml

All the best and thanks for leaving a comment,

Doug

Hi Paul,

I am amazed by the increase of “social interaction” among my professional peers via Twitter, Facebook, etc. over the last year.

Does this mean we have all been suffering a lack of such interaction in our daily F2F lives?

Doug