Horizon Report K-12 - accurate or wishful thinking?
Wednesday, June 8, 2011 at 06:00AM Each year I look forward to the Horizon Report and for the past couple years, I've especially looked forward to its K-12 iteration. The 2011 K12 edition of the report has been recently released and is available at http://www.nmc.org/pdf/2011-Horizon-Report-K12.pdf”
Compiled by a prestigious group of educators and thinkers (some who are both), this year's time-lined predictions are:
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: One Year or Less
- Cloud computing
- Mobiles
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
- Game-based learning
- Open content
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
- Learning Analytics
- Personal Learning Environments
Most of the past Horizon Report predictions (the post-secondary ones have been published since 2004) have significantly underestimated the time it has taken for new technologies to reach K-12 education and overestimated the technologies’ impact on how schooling has actually changed as a result. Ubiquitous wireless, social networking, “extended learning,” gaming, virtual worlds, smartphones, augmented reality, and sophisticated search tools have all appeared in a number of their reports. Some of these technologies have indeed made it into K-12 schools, but on a limited basis and have had a limited impact on teaching and learning in the typical classroom. Perhaps they are having a bigger impact on the college classroom, but I am doubtful.
The reports have also missed a few technologies that are having a big impact on schools: online testing, data-driven decision-making, parent information portals, programmed instruction, and data used to measure teacher effectiveness.
The board is comprised of "pro-technology" organizations and individuals (ISTE and COSN at the lead). I am wondering if the inclusion of a a couple of technology skeptics may provide a more accurate, more balanced report which predicts not just tech's glowing future, but some of the darker aspects of its use in schools as well.
If you read the educational technology press, you'd believe the constructivists have taken over education. But if you watch educational policy being made at the national, state and local level, you find that it is the testers, the rankers and the content-pushers who are in control.
Perhaps the Horizon Report might be more honest if it claims not to predict what will happen, but what the authors hope might happen.
[A tip of the hat to Scott McLeod who posted a similar (but better written) post today. Great minds think alike and all that, I guess.]
Reader Comments (2)
"Technology meets classroom, classroom wins." Tyack & Cuban
Classroom wins every time. But usually inertia does. Which is good for those thriving under the current system, but not so good for the dispossessed.
Doug