Might these two problems cancel themselves out?
Tuesday, July 25, 2023 at 08:40AM
The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment. Warren Bennis
The projections are reliable and stark: By 2050, people ages 65 and older will make up nearly 40% of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Large numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working age people to support them. Lauren Leatherby, NYT, July 23, 2023
An article in the July 24, 2023 Star Tribune newspaper reported that we Minnesotans can now renew our license plate tabs at the local supermarket. Using a machine similar to an ATM, one provides the necessary information and payment and bada-bing, bada-boom one gets new stickers printed out. No human contact necessary.
And, I would suspect, fewer employees needed at the vehicle registration desk in the county offices. Perhaps less demand for postal workers who might deliver the stickers.
It seems to me that we may be facing two big problems that just might cancel each other out.
The first is that there is a shrinking percentage of our population who will be in the workforce. My Boomer generation is large and retiring in growing numbers. Our children and children’s children seem to be postponing starting families. The advisability of large numbers of immigrants who might fill needed work positions seems to be called ever more into question.
Yet at the same time, automation and AI are doing more of the work that was once done by humans. Warehouses look to be run by some sort of robotic pickers. Manufacturing has long been dominated by robots. Self-driving cars are becoming a thing. Even tasks done by nursing home workers are being co opted by little C3POs. (Somehow I would rather have a robot change my diapers and empty my drool bucket than a human being.)
As “cheap” labor becomes harder to find and more expensive when found, the push for automation will make increasing economic sense for businesses and the government. My local bank recently remodeled its office area, taking out dozens of cubicles once used by bank officers. Of the ten teller windows, usually only two are now occupied. Hey, with online banking and ATMs and Venmo, who needs to go to a bank any more?
One business that seems to remain labor-intensive is the local supermarket. While the number of checkout clerks has dwindled due to self-checkout, produce workers, meat cutters, shelf-restockers, bakers, and deli workers are still plentiful. How long, I wonder, before the big stores figure out a way for shelves to be somehow automatically restocked? Before all hamburger is processed and packaged before being shipped to the store? Before robots start baking the bismarcks and apple fritters?
The nature of human work will change. Rather than flip burgers at McDonalds, the employees will maintain the burger-flippin’ mechanical devices and troubleshoot the already present machines used to place orders. “Hold the pickles, hold the lettuce, special orders don’t upset us,” will be true for all fast food joints unless the AI cook develops the ability to get upset. People who really enjoy cooking can work as chefs in more upscale restaurants.
I have always believed that any person who can be replaced by a machine, should be. Work should engage the mind, allow for creativity and problem-solving, and give individuals a sense of self worth. Automation and a shrinking workforce may just make that more likely.
So ends my morning mental rambling on this hot, hot day…
Reader Comments (2)
Sounds like job security for those of us still in the computer science / programming / robotics field...
Until, of course, the robots start repairing themselves - bwah, hah, hah!
Doug