Might these two problems cancel themselves out?

The factory of the future will have only two employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man from touching the equipment. Warren Bennis

The projections are reliable and stark: By 2050, people ages 65 and older will make up nearly 40% of the population in some parts of East Asia and Europe. That’s almost twice the share of older adults in Florida, America’s retirement capital. Large numbers of retirees will be dependent on a shrinking number of working age people to support them. Lauren Leatherby, NYT,  July 23, 2023

An article in the July 24, 2023 Star Tribune newspaper reported that we Minnesotans can now renew our license plate tabs at the local supermarket. Using a machine similar to an ATM, one provides the necessary information and payment and bada-bing, bada-boom one gets new stickers printed out. No human contact necessary.

And, I would suspect, fewer employees needed at the vehicle registration desk in the county offices. Perhaps less demand for postal workers who might deliver the stickers. 

It seems to me that we may be facing two big problems that just might cancel each other out.

The first is that there is a shrinking percentage of our population who will be in the workforce. My Boomer generation is large and retiring in growing numbers. Our children and children’s children seem to be postponing starting families. The advisability of large numbers of immigrants who might fill needed work positions seems to be called ever more into question. 

Yet at the same time, automation and AI are doing more of the work that was once done by humans. Warehouses look to be run by some sort of robotic pickers. Manufacturing has long been dominated by robots. Self-driving cars are becoming a thing. Even tasks done by nursing home workers are being co opted by little C3POs. (Somehow I would rather have a robot change my diapers and empty my drool bucket than a human being.)

As “cheap” labor becomes harder to find and more expensive when found, the push for automation will make increasing economic sense for businesses and the government. My local bank recently remodeled its office area, taking out dozens of cubicles once used by bank officers. Of the ten teller windows, usually only two are now occupied. Hey, with online banking and ATMs and Venmo, who needs to go to a bank any more?

One business that seems to remain labor-intensive is the local supermarket. While the number of checkout clerks has dwindled due to self-checkout, produce workers, meat cutters, shelf-restockers, bakers, and deli workers are still plentiful. How long, I wonder, before the big stores figure out a way for shelves to be somehow automatically restocked? Before all hamburger is processed and packaged before being shipped to the store?  Before robots start baking the bismarcks and apple fritters? 

The nature of human work will change. Rather than flip burgers at McDonalds, the employees will maintain the burger-flippin’ mechanical devices and troubleshoot the already present machines used to place orders. “Hold the pickles, hold the lettuce, special orders don’t upset us,” will be true for all fast food joints unless the AI cook develops the ability to get upset. People who really enjoy cooking can work as chefs in more upscale restaurants.

I have always believed that any person who can be replaced by a machine, should be. Work should engage the mind, allow for creativity and problem-solving, and give individuals a sense of self worth. Automation and a shrinking workforce may just make that more likely.

So ends my morning mental rambling on this hot, hot day…

Missing ISTE conferences

I attended (and usually presented) at every ISTE summer conference from 2003 to 2013. I served on the ISTE National Board from 2004-2008 and their National Education Technology Standards writing project in 2000. I was named a “Best of the Best” presenter in 2005. I was given “Making IT Happen” recognition in 2015. In other words, I was deeply involved in the International Society for Technology in Education. (See Why I Belong to ISTE)

So it was no small lump in my throat that I read Tim Stahmer’s recent blog post, “Not at ISTE”.  In the post, Tim reflects on his experiences at ISTE conferences in the past - and compares them to today’s state of both the organization and their conferences.

Like Tim, a major reason I attended the ISTE conference (really any conference) was the opportunity to see friends and associates and have discussions related to common work/tech/education issues we were facing. I often enjoyed the keynote speakers who were bigwigs in education or technology and it was fun to see some of the new and innovative technologies being used by fellow attendees. (I usually spent very little time the vendor area - usually just to say hi to Minnesota business reps.) 

Around 2009, the organization and the conference began to change. Tim reflects:

That was the year they dropped the old name, NECC (the National Educational Computing Conference), and moved their primary office to Washington DC. I think that was the start of the organization becoming more corporate and less of a community of educators. A big business that promotes the edtech industry, as opposed to one dedicated to improving the practice of teachers, helping schools, and enhancing student learning.

Maybe it was because 2008 was my last year on the board? Even while I was on the board, though, corporate voices played what I thought was an outsized role in ISTE’s policy making. Apple had a permanent seat and there were always at least a couple more corporate seats at the table. 

Over my final years of work and especially over my past four retirement years, I have drifted away from paying much attention to ISTE, AASL, and other educational organizations. At some point, we “boomers” need to loosen our grip on the reins of our profession, leaving visioning and problem-solving to younger, brighter minds. I admire Tim for staying informed. Sorry to say, I’m just not that interested.

I deeply appreciate the experiences afforded me through conference attendance. (I did fight for years trying to get ALA and ISTE to stop holding their national meetings at the same time each year, arguing that many of us swung both ways - techs and librarians!) Perhaps like Blockbuster and fax machines, physical conferences are indeed a thing of the past, to be attended only by those for whom change is difficult.

A few blog posts about past experiences at the ISTE conference:

• Policy and iPads: a few ISTE 10 impressions
• ISTE 12: Escalators, Apps, and Sitting
• Howdy from ISTE 2013
• Student focused ISTE 17

Visiting Yosemite - what could possibly go wrong?

Yosemite sunrise, Day One

Visitors are facing unprecedented traffic gridlock while attempting to enter Yosemite National Park this holiday weekend. Outdoor enthusiasts reported long wait times before making it through the world-famous park’s gates. One visitor said traffic ground to a halt 80 miles outside of Yosemite Valley, and continued crawling at a snail’s pace for three hours, before they finally reached a parking space. KRON 4, July 3, 2023

Highway 120 west entrance to Yosemite on July 11, 2023 at 5:50am. Crickets.

Canceled and delayed flights. Crowded venues. Extremely hot temperatures. Over-priced lodging and meals. Changed hiking plans. While it seemed that anything that could go wrong on our trip to Yosemite National Park last week did go wrong.

Our Minnesota hiking group

Had we known a year ago when planning this trip that:

• Extreme snowfall damage in the Sierra Nevadas would lead to park road closures and inaccessibility of many hiking trailheads.
• Pent up demand for travel would lead to record-breaking numbers of visitors to Yosemite’s limited areas that are open.
• A global heatwave would shoot temperatures up to near 100 degrees - even in the mountains
• Sun Country’s labor shortage would cause flight cancellations and delays 

we might have gone somewhere else. Still we managed to have a good time.

Typical view, Ho, hum.

Given the publicity around the excessive wait times for park entry (see above), we entered the park early - the first day before 6am - before the rangers manned the entry booths. I have the senior pass for National Parks (best $10 I ever spent), so payment was not an issue. It would waiting for others to pay and ask 300 questions of the ranger that I was worried about.

We found an early parking spot at Curry Village and left the car parked there for the day, taking a shuttle to see the iconic wonders of the park. The upside to large snow falls over the winter was is that the waterfalls were in full roar. Besides the shuttle, we walked a lot including a hike to Mirror Lake and did most of our sightseeing by early afternoon. We did all the “must-sees” on the first day in the park.

Our campsite in the park

The extremely hot weather and closed planned hiking trail led Heidi and me to decide to do day hikes instead of the backpacking trip we had planned. Our day hikes were in less popular areas of Yosemite - Wawoma’s Swinging Bridge Trail along the Merced River and the Grizzly Giant Loop in the Mariposa Sequoia area. Again, we finished by early afternoon and spent the hottest parts of the afternoon napping and reading in air conditioned comfort.

Merced River on hike to Mirror Lake

Besides the hiking and good company of Heidi’s daughter, son-in-law, and a couple friends, I especially enjoyed driving the constantly looping roads through the mountains around the park. I had not realized just how big a park Yosemite actually is in square miles and driving time! With the exception of a motorcyclist who passed us doing about 100 mph on a blind, sharp curve, most drivers were pretty good. 

Along the Grizzley Giant Loop through a sequoia grove.

The canceled flight that delayed our arrival in San Francisco by a day meant that we did not get to see the city as we had planned at the beginning of the trip. We did, however, get to spent most of our last day before our evening flight home, driving through the town, viewing the Golden Gate Bridge, and touring the military remnants of The Presidio. I was hoping to see Dirty Harry or Steve McQueen barrelling up and down the city’s hills in fast cars, but no such luck.

A small forest fire within the park made for hazy skies but great photos

Trips (like most of life) don’t always go the way they’re planned. But we stoics manage to have a good time anyway. Good memories and on to the next adventure!

A visit to Golden Gate Bridge and the The Presidio before the flight home.

More photos can be found here.