Scott Adams's questions

Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams writes an insightful and humorous eponymous blog. After a day of making decisions with only part of the information he felt he needed, he recently asked, "How do you make descisions with incomplete knowledge?"

It made me reflect on all of the little rules one develops over the years for handling decisions without the benefit of sufficient data. You always start with the easy questions, such as...

1. What do the experts say you should do?
2. How much experience do the experts have with this question?
3. Does the expert have a conflict of interest?
4. What's the worst thing that could happen?
5. How easy is it to switch course if you choose wrong?
6. What information can you find on the Internet?
7. Who has made this choice before? Were they satisfied?
8. If I delay, will I learn something more that is useful?
9. Is there a way to do a limited test?
10. Does the decision make logical and mathematical sense?
11. Do the experts make this choice with their own money?
12. What do the well-informed people in my situation usually do?
13. What does the competing vendor say about this vendor?
14. Have I seen all of the alternatives?

Those are the questions with relatively clear or quantitative answers. It's the next category of questions that intrigue me, because they involve pattern recognition, and I can't always tell whether I am being influenced by fear and bias, or keen intuition informed by my experience. The questions in this category look like this...

1. Does this situation follow a pattern I've seen in scams?
2. Is someone giving answers that seem intentionally vague?
3. Is information conspicuously missing?
4. Is someone trying to rush me?
5. Could someone unscrupulous easily take advantage of me?
6. Have I regretted this sort of decision before?
7. How do I imagine other people will react to this decision?
8. If the expert is so smart, why isn't he rich?

What questions would you add to the list?

I don't think a week goes by that a teacher doesn't email me asking if an e-mail is spam - even those that seem most obvious. (Uh, do you actually have an account with that bank that wants you to verify your information?) I don't think a day goes by that I don't have to make quick choices based on limited information. Even big choices that are well-reseached often leave on a little concerned about evidence that may have a political or hidden bias.

Personally, I think we've moved beyond having a complete knowledge of any situation that requires a decision - there is just too much to sift through online. An educated guess is about as good as it gets.

But Scott's set of questions is a good one to have our students and staff think about when it comes to evaluating information.

Is it possible to make decisions anymore that are "beyond the shadow of a doubt?"

Comments

[Ric Murry]

This is exactly why I have come to believe that people are only "transparent" about the things they want others to know about them. It is also why I abhor the word transparent when discussing online persona.

We can never get a complete picture, and many (if not most) do not want decision-makers to have all of the information.

[Clint Buhs]

I recently read Blink by Malcolm Gladwell, in which he addresses this very issue. According to him, trying to find the "beyond a shadow" answer is often less accurate than going with "gut feelings". Interesting read.

[Custom Essays]

Hi,
Yes you are absolutely right, we've moved beyond having a complete knowledge of any situation that requires a decision. Now world is changed and changed really fast, knowledge is for every one, any one can access to information.

i personally like your post keep it up.

[Doug Johnson]

Hi Ric,

The old bible verse said it well, "For now we see through a glass, darkly."

And as to giving decision-makers all the facts, I suppose we always argue for one side of a case or another and either consciously or unconsciously give some information more importance than other information.

Strange creatures, humans!

Doug

Hi Clint,

And take Blink's observation to the extreme, you get Stephen Colbert's "truthiness"! Yikes.

Doug

HI Mr. Essays,

I am happy to accept your posts, but I do delete links to commercial websites. You might want to spend your time on other blog posts where they might be kept.

Doug

[Charlie A. Roy]

@ Doug
I'm pretty sure I could solve some financial issues if I could find some co-investors to help me work with the deposed crown prince of Nigeria. - ha ha ha.

[Doug Johnson]

Hi Charlie,

Count me in as soon as I get that big tax refund those Internet people are helping me get. That is if I haven't already spent it on male enhancement products.

Doug

[Mary J. Johnson]

Hi Doug,

Twenty years ago, when I was in library school, an "information broker" spoke to a class about her work. Her guiding philosophy was this: "Every problem is an information problem." Your post confirms it!

-Mary

[Doug Johnson]

Hi Mary,

In a rational world, you'd like to think so. I am not sure how rational people are most of the time however!

Thanks for the comment,

Doug